ERIC DEGGANS, HOST:
It's the first official working day of the new European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defence minister, is EU President, her second term. And on everyone's mind in Brussels is another President's second time at bat, Donald Trump, who campaigned on big tariffs on European imports and reducing the U.S. military presence in Europe. For more, we're joined by Teri Schultz in Brussels and NPR's Eleanor Beardsley in Paris. Thanks for being with us.
ELEANOR BEARDSLEY, BYLINE: Hello.
TERI SCHULTZ, BYLINE: Hello.
DEGGANS: Teri, let's start with you in Brussels. The European Commission is like the cabinet in America. It's the center of power in Europe. What's their priority on their first day?
SCHULTZ: Yeah, that's a good comparison, Eric. There's one commissioner, sort of a cabinet secretary in U.S. terms, from each of the European Union's 27 member states, and each one of them has a portfolio ranging from trade to education, agriculture, foreign relations and so on. And as you can imagine, there are a lot of different views and approaches. But above all, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is desperate to have a united front to deal with the return of Donald Trump.
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URSULA VON DER LEYEN: Over the next five years, what will be of absolute critical importance is unity. I cannot underline this enough.
SCHULTZ: So because the big EU decisions require consensus among the 27, every country counts, but some count more than others. France and Germany together are considered the engine of Europe, the two biggest EU economies. So naturally, what's happening in these two countries affects the entire block.
DEGGANS: Well, let's talk about them one by one. Eleanor, you're in Paris. What's the conversation about Donald Trump's second administration like over there?
BEARDSLEY: Well, there really is this sense of here we go again. And the future is very uncertain, Eric. You know, President Macron says this is a crucial moment for Europe. He said, Europe cannot remain a herbivore in a world of carnivores. And he was speaking about everything - trade, defense, technological innovation. You know, Macron's big thing that he pushes is what he calls strategic autonomy for Europe. In other words, he wants Europe to be more independent in all of those areas.
But there's a problem. Macron is now a lame duck president. He no longer has a majority in parliament. And his partner German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government has just collapsed. So both countries' governments are weakened internally. I spoke about this with Hans Stark. He's an expert in Franco-German relations with the Paris think tank Ifri, and here's what he said.
HANS STARK: Germany has no government. France has no majority. The U.K. is out of the EU. So where can you build strategic autonomy in Europe? With whom?
DEGGANS: Teri, the first time Donald Trump was in office, he made good on threats to impose tariffs on European Union imports. So is the EU expecting a rerun this time around?
SCHULTZ: They absolutely are. And here's one sign. When Trump said he'll add import duties on products from China, Mexico and Canada on his very first day in office, shares of European automakers dropped. I don't think anyone in the EU doubts they'll be next. At one of his last campaign rallies in Pennsylvania, Trump said the EU is brutal when it works together.
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DONALD TRUMP: They don't take our cars. They don't take our foreign products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no. They are going to have to pay a big price.
SCHULTZ: Though, as you mentioned, there are still tariffs on European steel and aluminum from the first Trump administration. Now, the Biden administration suspended them but didn't remove them. The EU has its own suspended retaliatory measures from that time, which they could take off the shelf, and there are active discussions about other ways they could try to protect their own markets. But Plan A for the Europeans is definitely what they optimistically call constructive engagement, simply trying to talk Trump out of tariffs.
BEARDSLEY: Well, could I just add something here? In some cases, the numbers actually support Trump's complaint. I mean, let's take Germany. After World War II, it was agreed that Germany would have a tiny army and be protected by the U.S., and that actually suited Germany well. They didn't have to spend money on defense. They beefed up their welfare state while their economy boomed. And Hans Stark told me that the U.S.-German relationship today is way out of proportion, and he says Trump is right to question the model. Let's hear what he says.
STARK: When he's telling the Germans, hey, listen, guys, you have 60 billion of trade surplus with us and we protect you, and that's not normal. And he's right.
DEGGANS: But it's not only tariffs and the economy that Europeans are worried about. I mean, we've heard Donald Trump talk about cutting U.S. aid for Ukraine in a war that many European countries feel is an existential issue for their own security. So, Teri, you follow NATO closely. How are they preparing for that uncertainty?
SCHULTZ: If Trump does indeed slash aid for Ukraine dramatically, frankly, Eric, there's no way European countries can make up for that shortfall. The U.S. is Ukraine's biggest contributor of weapons, and the limited capacity of the arms manufacturing industry here in Europe and the long wait times in production mean Kyiv will be in real trouble. As for Trump's attitudes toward NATO, there's a lot of wait and see here because in his first term, he made many threats about, for example, pulling U.S. troops out of Germany, and that didn't actually happen.
But what we are sure of is that he'll be publicly shaming those countries which don't spend at least the NATO target of 2% of GDP on their own defense. Now, here, many European NATO allies are hoping they can get on Trump's good side because now 23 of the other 31 governments are doing that, and they hope that will curry some favor with the Trump administration.
DEGGANS: So, Eleanor, I'm gonna bring the $64,000 question to you. Will Trump's new administration pull Europe together or push it apart?
BEARDSLEY: Well, that is the question, Eric. Everyone is wondering, and we're waiting. We're waiting for January to find out. You know, I spoke with Martin Quencez. He's head of the U.S.-German Marshall Fund in Paris. And he says, despite that pressure for Europe to come together in a common front against big powers like not only the U.S. but also China, Quencez thinks another narrative is just as likely.
MARTIN QUENCEZ: That we will see many European countries trying to have their own bilateral deals with the Trump administration and not create this sort of unity at the European level.
BEARDSLEY: Countries cannot negotiate major trade deals separately. That's under the EU purview, but there are many smaller things they can negotiate. And Quencez says we might see different European countries sending their envoys to Washington to make their own separate deals with the Trump administration.
DEGGANS: That's NPR's Paris correspondent Eleanor Beardsley and Teri Schultz in Brussels. Thanks to both of you.
BEARDSLEY: Thank you, Eric.
SCHULTZ: It's a pleasure.
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