90.5 WESA and Campos, a Pittsburgh-based market research firm, are partnering on a series of short opinion surveys of adults in the Pittsburgh region to better understand their opinions on a range of timely topics.
In this latest round of the WESA/Campos Pulse Survey, we explored Pittsburgh-area residents' political alignments, intentions, and attitudes regarding the upcoming presidential election.
Key Findings:
(Note: “Republican” and “Democrat” in these findings refer to respondents’ registered parties. “Conservative-leaning” and “liberal-leaning” are composite categories based on multiple questions:
- Conservative-leaning = anyone registered as a Republican , plus anyone who is independent/unaffiliated/affiliated with a third party and who self-identified as leaning conservative
- Liberal-leaning = anyone registered as a Democrat, plus anyone who is independent/unaffiliated/affiliated with a third party and who self-identified as leaning liberal)
At this point, there are few undecided voters in the Pittsburgh area — but far from zero.
45 out of 400 respondents — 11% of the sample — can be considered undecided or “swing” voters. These break down into:
- 41 people (10% of the sample) who are planning to vote but undecided on for whom they will vote.
- 4 people (1% of the sample) who are unsure whether they will vote at all.
Republicans in the Pittsburgh area are more likely to be considering voting outside of their registered party’s candidate than Democrats are.
- 87% of registered Democrats plan to vote (or have voted) for their registered party’s candidate, whereas only 79% of registered Republicans say the same.
- 12% of Republicans say they plan to vote but aren’t sure for whom yet (compared to 7% of Democrats).
- 8% of Republicans plan to vote (or have voted) for another party’s candidate (vs. 5% of Democrats).
Independents in the Pittsburgh area appear to be split perfectly evenly between liberal-leaning and conservative-leaning — and most already know for whom they’re voting.
- Among those who reported their party as “Independent/no affiliation,” the self-described political leanings form a perfect “bell-curve” shape:
- 7% “very liberal”
- 24% “somewhat liberal”
- 38% “neither conservative nor liberal”
- 24% “somewhat conservative”
- 7% “very conservative”
- Among this same group, 76% said they definitely plan to vote and know who their choice is. Another 12% definitely do not plan to vote. Only 12% plan to vote but are undecided (the same as the percentage among Republicans).
Among those who know for whom they’re going to vote, one-third decided after the primary elections — most commonly, after Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
- The following is the breakdown of when respondents had made their decisions on for whom to vote for president (among those who were decided):
- 66% before the primary elections (more than six months ago)
- 9% after the primary elections (three-six months ago)
- 17% after Joe Biden dropped out of the race (two-three months ago)
- 2% after the national conventions (one-two months ago)
- 7% after the Trump/Harris debate (within the past month)
● Democrats were more likely than Republicans or independents to have decided after Joe Biden dropped out (23% vs. 8% and 13%, respectively).
● Independents were more likely than Democrats or Republicans to have made their decisions in the past couple of months (9% after the national conventions, 19% after the Trump/Harris debate).
Those who don’t know whom they’ll vote for are generally getting closer to making a decision.
- When asked “How would you describe where you are in your decision-making process compared to 3 months ago?”, 27% of undecided voters are “much closer to making a decision,” and 46% are “somewhat closer to making a decision.”
- Only 7% are further away from making a decision.
- Directionally, liberal-leaning undecided voters seem closer to making a decision than do conservative-leaning undecided voters.
Candidate visits to Western Pa. appear to have a polarizing effect on voters’ support.
- For both candidates (Harris and Trump), a majority of respondents say that the candidate’s visits have had no effect on their support for that candidate (56% for Harris, 58% for Trump).
- However, the responses for each candidate are heavily dependent on party or political leanings.
- Conservative-leaning respondents tend to say that Trump’s visits have made them more supportive of him (54%), while Harris’s visits have made them less supportive of her (32%).
- Liberal-leaning respondents tend to say that Harris’s visits have made them more supportive of her (48%), while Trump’s visits have made them less supportive of him (26%).
- So, the polarizing effect appears to have been slightly greater on conservative-leaning respondents than on liberal-leaning respondents.
An open-ended question for independent/third-party and undecided voters produced few clear themes, but the most prevalent was that many of them feel that both Trump and Harris are dishonest or inauthentic.
- A final open-ended question was displayed to anyone independent/unaffiliated or registered with a third party, anyone unsure for whom they would vote, or anyone unsure whether they would vote. The question was: “What would be most important in making up your mind about whether to vote, or who to vote for, in this presidential election?”
- Independent/unaffiliated voters who know which candidate they plan to vote for tend to echo the common themes of whichever side they lean toward, whether liberal or conservative.
- For instance, those who lean conservative mentioned border control / illegal immigration, abortion, freedom of speech, and safety/“law & order.”
- Those who lean liberal mentioned women’s rights, democratic values, and social programs.
- Both groups mentioned following the Constitution, as well as character/morality/ethics (though the latter was mentioned more by liberals).
- Among those undecided on whether they would vote or for whom they would vote, there were a few common themes:
- Truthfulness/honesty/integrity - Implicitly, these respondents seemed to regard both candidates as dishonest or inauthentic.
- The economy - Generally, respondents did not elaborate on this, though several mentioned inflation or high prices, and a few others mentioned helping small or American businesses.
- Immigration policy - Mentioned by several registered Democrats as the factor that would decide their vote, though they generally did not elaborate (i.e., it was unclear whether they supported more strict or more open policies than what they believe the Democratic Party offers).
Survey Methodology:
Fielding dates: Oct. 15-21, 2024
Survey length: 5-8 minutes.
Sample: 400 adults (age 18+) in the Pittsburgh region
- Responses were solicited from the proprietary Campos Research Panel (10,000+ members in the Greater Pittsburgh area). Respondents were offered a chance to win one of five $50 gift cards to incentivize participation.
- 85% of the respondents reside in Allegheny County, and 15% reside in the adjacent five counties (Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, Westmoreland).
- The sample was managed to be approximately representative of the six-county region by age, gender, and race/ethnicity.
Screening Criteria:
- Age is 18 or older
- Resides in Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, or Westmoreland counties
About the WESA/Campos Pulse Survey:
This joint research and reporting project enables WESA to tap into the opinions of people in Pittsburgh on a regular basis and use the corresponding results to complement our reporting.
These surveys are issued quarterly to members of the Campos Research Panel. Each survey contains about 10-15 short questions and takes only a few minutes to complete.
The survey is fielded primarily among residents of Allegheny County but also includes respondents from the adjacent counties (Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington, Westmoreland). It is representative of the region in terms of age, gender, and race/ethnicity.
This project brings together two organizations with unique and complementary strengths. Pittsburgh Community Broadcasting Corporation’s 90.5 WESA produces award-winning, independent, fact-based journalism with a focus on the communities of southwestern Pennsylvania. Campos is a Pittsburgh-based research and strategy firm, bringing 35 years of market research and consumer insight experience to its work.
Residents of the Pittsburgh region who are interested in participating in the survey may join the Campos Research Panel here. For more information about the survey, contact Joe Kuhn at jkuhn@campos.com.
