Revised federal data shows Pittsburgh and surrounding counties gained about 4,500 fewer jobs over the past year than first estimated, further confirming the weakness of the local economy’s recovery from the pandemic.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the updated figures this week. Although adjustments to the jobs numbers are to be expected as the government gathers more data, regional economist Chris Briem said the latest calculations are discouraging in a region whose employment growth lags the rest of the country.
“The question for me was whether or not the revisions would sort of give us some of those jobs back,” Briem said. “And the bottom line is that didn't really happen. And in fact, we probably sort of are coming in a little below the original numbers.”
The region has regained about 94% of the jobs it had the month before the pandemic arrived two years ago, according to figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this January. In February 2020, there were about 1.2 million non-farm positions in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area, which covers Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties. By January of this year, there were 1.1 million jobs locally.
The number of nonfarm jobs fell by 25,000 between December 2021 and January 2022, but Briem noted that such seasonal ebbs are standard as holiday shopping comes to an end and outdoor recreation subsides.
Meanwhile, unemployment in the area declined over the last year, falling to 4% in December. But Briem noted that the drop largely represents a reduction in the number of people looking for work.
“It's really sort of an ongoing contraction of the labor force,” he said. “It's not really coming from net employment gains, which is sort of where you would like it to come from.”
During the pandemic, labor force participation declined as more workers opted to retire early, faced greater childcare responsibilities and reassessed their careers. Briem has previously noted that, with its local universities, Pittsburgh has a high concentration of young residents. His analysis shows this group was especially likely to exit the workforce when COVID-19 arrived.
“We've certainly suffered a chunk of job loss here since COVID set in, and I think at this point … it's not a question anymore of whether we're going to get back to pre-COVID levels,” Briem said. “There's been a certain reset in local employment levels. And so, there might be growth or decline from here. But this is sort of the new baseline that we'll see growth or decline from.”
