Rural Pennsylvania is getting older. And the number of babies being born is going down. WPSU’s Anne Danahy spoke with Kyle Kopko, executive director of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, about this shift and whether enough people are moving into rural areas to make up for a shrinking population. Here's their conversation:
Anne Danahy
Kyle Kopko, thank you so much for talking with us.
Kyle Kopko
Thanks so much for having me.
Anne Danahy
Your center recently released a few reports analyzing population trends in rural Pennsylvania. One of the things you found is that the number of people living in rural Pennsylvania is actually decreasing, not increasing. What's behind that?
Kyle Kopko
Yeah, great question. So it's basically population imbalance due to births and deaths. So what we've seen since 2010 — going into the 2020 Census — is a decrease of about 85,000 residents in our rural counties all throughout Pennsylvania. Now, it's not uniform everywhere. But that's the average statistic. We're down about 85,000 people. However, there is a bright spot. So if we look at recent data from the census on migration — so people moving into and out of Pennsylvania — we have more people moving in than moving out. But due to that population imbalance between births and deaths, the overall population is still declining.
Anne Danahy
Yeah, I found that to be a little bit surprising that more people are moving into rural Pennsylvania than out of it in recent years. What's happening there?
Kyle Kopko
Yeah, that's a wonderful question and something that we're trying to wrap our minds around, too. And we've seen some data that doesn't systematically explain this. But there are some great anecdotes out there that help to, you know, bolster, why this might be happening. And so in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, we've seen a lot more individuals moving into Pennsylvania to do remote work. And this is especially true in the northeast, around the Pocono counties, they've seen a sharp increase in the number of property sales, and even second, or investment properties that were mortgaged in recent years. We're seeing that some individuals are moving in from urban areas, both within Pennsylvania and outside of the state, to work remotely. So that's one explanation.
I think, too, that there has been a greater increase on emphasizing outdoor recreation, which has also been part of a new trend in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. And we've seen places not only just in the Poconos, but also in the northern tier, outside of Pittsburgh, Seven Springs/Somerset area where there has been more in-migration, more property sales, particularly the second properties, that have occurred in recent years. We also had a hearing on Thursday, May 25th, in Williamsport that addressed workforce issues and population change. And one of our research teams, actually from Penn State Harrisburg, are going to be releasing one of their research reports shortly. But during their testimony, they highlighted that there is a need, and there is a desire for individuals outside of Pennsylvania, to consider moving to rural areas within the Commonwealth. And this is especially true of recent college graduates, individuals with families, and individuals who are involved in remote work. So all of these things are coming together in a way that I think could benefit Pennsylvania. It's a way that I think we need to think intentionally about these data trends and determine what is needed for some of these communities if they want to attract new residents, because we have all the building blocks in place to do it, if we want to.
Anne Danahy
Your data looked at 2019, 2021. Is that right?
Kyle Kopko
Correct.
Anne Danahy
And right, as you mentioned, with the COVID-19 pandemic, that's what springs to mind. You think of people who maybe are going to work remotely and say, OK, maybe I want to leave a city in the Northeast, and maybe I want to move to rural Pennsylvania. So will you just have to kind of wait and see and keep an eye on that to see whether that continues?
Kyle Kopko
Yes. And I think, too, that there's an opportunity if communities want to do this to intentionally, try to emphasize the characteristics of their communities that would entice individuals to move there. We know that our income tax is relatively lower, when compared to other states. Our corporate tax is going to be coming down over the next few years. These are all factors that I think would entice individuals to move to Pennsylvania. We have to wait and see whether or not this will continue in the next few years. It's certainly something the Center for Rural Pennsylvania is going to continue to track.
Anne Danahy
And the population shifts are also leading to more diversity in rural areas. Is that right?
Kyle Kopko
Yes, that's exactly correct. So we've had actually a sharp increase in a number of Hispanic and Latino residents living in our rural communities. So that's the fastest growing demographic. And if we were to look back over the past 20, 30 years, what we would see is this overall, statewide an increase in the number of persons of color who identify as non-white, and it's almost a magnitude of double since 1990. So Pennsylvania is becoming more diverse, not just in rural Pennsylvania, but in our urban communities as well. So Pennsylvania is starting to look more like the rest of the United States. And I think that's something that policymakers and regional planners need to keep in mind as they think about what their communities look like over the next few decades.
Anne Danahy
So kind of the bottom line is that the number of people living in rural Pennsylvania, though, will continue to go down unless more people continue to move here. There are different ideas about what the state would need to do to attract more people. You mentioned the hearings on that recently. Are there any factors that you see as key that should be kept in mind?
Kyle Kopko
I think one of the biggest short term factors is housing, and particularly affordable housing. And that's something that we heard loud and clear, in recent hearings, not only the one that we held yesterday for the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, but the previous week, I got to testify at another hearing before the Senate Policy Committee. And housing was a primary issue, not just housing for low income individuals, but middle of the road houses that are just affordable for the average salary. That's very, very important. I think what we're seeing is an emphasis on the high-end construction needs. And that's just simply not affordable for so many residents, or housing that meets the needs of an aging population as well where someone could age in place without having to give up their home. So having that accessible housing options is going to be critical.
I think that we also need to take a look at childcare issues, too, particularly in light of workforce needs. We do know that there are some individuals who are staying at home to take care of children or a family member who might not have access to medical assistance or medical care. That's certainly an issue as well. Transportation for senior citizens, too, particularly in rural communities where public transit is often lacking or limited.
Kyle Kopko
There's no one single issue unfortunately. That's one thing I'd really like to underscore for listeners. This is going to take multiple policy approaches to figure out what is the best way of stabilizing our population in rural communities. Or, if we are going to shrink over time, doing it in a way that is sustainable, that isn't going to result in communities facing shortfalls for tax revenue and ways of providing basic services and serving their communities. So long story short, we need to think very intentionally and carefully about all this.
Anne Danahy
Kyle Kopco, thank you so much for talking with us.
Kyle Kopko
It's my pleasure. Thanks so much for having me.
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