There has been a nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases this summer. And while cases are increasing in Allegheny County, experts say the region is so far seeing what’s become a routine spike compared to rates in other parts of the country.
“This year isn't really any different from past year in terms of a summer peak,” said Dr. Kristen Mertz, a medical epidemiologist with the Allegheny County Health Department. “For us, it looks pretty typical.”
At the same time, Mertz noted that the virus can be harder to track now that some mandated reporting has ended and fewer people are seeking tests to confirm if their symptoms are the result of a COVID-19 infection. As a result, the Allegheny County Health Department relies on data from hospitals, primary care providers and wastewater to track the spread of the virus.
“We may not be getting as many cases reported now as we did in past years,” she said. “[But] the trend is the same whether the exact level is the same or not.”
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pennsylvania is among 17 states reporting “high” levels of wastewater viral activity as of early August. Another 27 states are reporting “very high” levels of the virus this month, which is the highest category used by the agency to quantify viral activity.
In July, 19 states reported “high” levels of viral activity and just seven reported “very high” levels. The data suggests cases are surging across the county.
But while national public health experts predict this summer wave of infections could be one of the largest, Mertz said it hasn't been as drastic in Allegheny County.
According to Mertz, we’ve settled into a pattern with COVID-19 with two peaks per year: one during the summer and one during the winter. That makes COVID different from other respiratory viruses like the flu which typically have one peak per year.
Locally, the summer surge has not been as severe as the one in winter, she said. And the current wave is no different. Mertz said that the virus’ ability to mutate rapidly is one reason for the current uptick, but another contributing factor is a waning immunity.
“It’s been a while since people have had COVID or since they have had their last [vaccine] shot,” she said. Increased summer travel is another factor leading to more cases, according to Mertz.
While more people are getting sick, fewer people are being hospitalized during this current wave, according to Dr. Brian Lamb, an internal medicine provider with Allegheny Health Network.
“We’re [seeing] less than 100 hospitalizations,” across the county, he said. “That’s a good sign. It means our facilities are not being overwhelmed.”
Lamb said that’s because most cases are likely one of the several “FLiRT” variants of the virus. Those variants, which descend from the dominant JN.1 omicron variant, are highly contagious. But increased immunity from previous infections or vaccines have resulted in milder symptoms for people who become sick with one of these variants, according to Lamb.
“What we're not seeing is the [severe] sickness that is associated with it,” Lamb said. “Luckily, it's not really quite the wildfire that we would expect, for as fast as it's spreading.”
The FLiRT variants typically cause the familiar symptoms of coughing, sore throat, fevers and aches. They’re not typically associated with loss of taste or shortness of breath, Lamb said.
Lamb and Mertz suggest those who present with similar symptoms get tested for the virus and stay home from school or work to prevent the spread.
When to get a booster shot
With a summer surge in cases, some people may wonder if they should schedule a booster shot appointment to stay healthy. But the current vaccines on the market target older mutations of the virus.
As soon as next month, a new vaccine by the biotechnology company Novavax will target JN.1 while the new Pfizer and Moderna shots will target one of the main FLiRT variants. These vaccines are expected to be more effective against the current mutations of the virus that are dominating cases in the U.S.
With that in mind, Mertz suggested patients without other medical conditions consider holding off on making their booster appointments.
“If you're not at high risk, probably best to wait until the new vaccine comes out because it's a better match for the circulating variants now,” Mertz said.
But if a patient has never been vaccinated or hasn’t gotten the 2023-2024 booster shot, Mertz said to consider getting a booster as soon as possible and then again when the new vaccines become available. That’s because the current shots can still protect against serious disease, hospitalization and death.
“It's not going to be a perfect match because the virus has mutated, but it should offer some protection, definitely against more severe disease,” she said, cautioning that patients should check with their primary care provider to determine what’s best for them.
Lamb echoed Mertz’s advice on holding off on getting a booster right now if you’re otherwise healthy.
“I've been telling a lot of our young, healthy patients it's probably okay to wait until the new vaccines come out… because it's going to have a little bit better protection,”
While the new shots will likely be more effective against the new mutations, Lamb also said he wants to avoid creating “vaccine fatigue.”
“If you tell people [to] get vaccinated every six months, people are going to do less and less of that,” he said, noting that many people prefer to get their COVID booster shot at the same time as their flu shot.
In the meantime, he suggested bringing a mask for that end-of-summer trip or other high-risk activity. And to stay home if you’re feeling unwell.
“We’re so used to living with this now that we kind of forget some of our precautions,” he said. “I think we’ve all gotten used to it, but that doesn’t mean that we need to be complacent with it.”
