NABATIEH, Lebanon — Khalil Moussa Shoumar's home was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike the last time Israel invaded southern Lebanon, in 2006.
Back then, some 15 to 20 days after a ceasefire, a Hezbollah agent with a clipboard arrived to survey damage, Shoumar, 55, recalls. The Iran-backed group paid for temporary accommodation for him, his wife and their four sons, he says, and rebuilt their house in Nabatieh, a regional capital.
This year, on Oct. 23, Shoumar's home was destroyed again, in a barrage of Israeli airstrikes that killed one of his sons and left another in a coma.
"My children grew up here," Shoumar says, ducking under twisted rebar. He points to a torn poster peeking out from crumbled concrete. It used to hang in his late son's bedroom, he says. "We have so many memories."
With a ceasefire in effect in its latest war with Israel, Hezbollah has again rolled out compensation for victims in Lebanon and pledged to rebuild homes like Shoumar's. But the war's terrible toll — more than 4,000 people killed, according to Lebanon's public health authorities, and economic losses of $8.5 billion, according to the World Bank — may complicate those efforts.
The destruction may be five times greater than in 2006. Israel has killed many of Hezbollah's top leaders and destroyed its headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. And now, sudden regime change in neighboring Syria may sever Hezbollah's supply routes.
All of those things may hinder the group's capacity to mount a historic rebuilding effort.
What is Hezbollah pledging?
On Dec. 5, Hezbollah's leader Naim Qassem — whose predecessor Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Lebanon by Israeli airstrikes in September — gave a video address from an undisclosed location. He outlined a system of compensation for people in Lebanon whose homes had been destroyed by Israeli attacks.
He said Hezbollah would give $14,000 per year, per family, to those whose homes were destroyed in Beirut and its suburbs, and $12,000 to those with homes destroyed outside Lebanon's capital.
Qassem called the money a gift from Hezbollah's patron, Iran.
"Reconstruction is a consolidation of victory," he said. "I thank the Islamic Republic of Iran because most of the amount was provided by it."
At the start of December, Hezbollah sent out WhatsApp messages to its supporters, some recipients told NPR, asking them to document damage and submit invoices to the Jihad al-Binaa Association, a Lebanese construction company operated by Hezbollah. The company and Hezbollah are both designated as terrorist groups by the U.S. government.
It's unclear if any payments have started to flow yet.
Hezbollah's ability to keep its promise may be complicated by events in Syria
Hezbollah's supply routes run westward from its patron Iran, across Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon. They've been disrupted in recent weeks by Israeli airstrikes on border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, rebel fighting across Syria, and — most of all — the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran and Hezbollah's ally.
"We have yet to see how Hezbollah will kind of override these new obstacles," says Amal Saad, a Hezbollah expert and lecturer in politics and international relations at Cardiff University.
The rebel group that led Assad's overthrow, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was once linked with al-Qaida and has a history of confrontations with Hezbollah. After the Syrian civil war began in 2011, HTS — a Sunni Muslim group — infiltrated Lebanon, clashing with Shia Muslims from Hezbollah, which fought on the opposite side in Syria's conflict. In Lebanon, HTS rebels abducted local residents and exploded suicide bombs.
In the border region, many Lebanese worry HTS fighters might invade again.
Adding to the danger for Hezbollah is the presence of Israeli troops sent to occupy Syrian territory, effectively meaning Israel now outflanks Hezbollah to the south and the east.
But Saad says Hezbollah's difficulties in Syria may have started even earlier, while Assad was still in power. The former Syrian ruler had rejoined the Arab League last year and made overtures to Gulf Arab neighbors to gain support for reconstruction, which would then have allowed for return of Syrian refugees.
"I've heard this from Hezbollah sources, that actually Assad — because he had done this rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and had a desire to get reconstruction money into Syria — he was actually kind of disengaging or divorcing himself from Iran, and by extension, making it very difficult for Hezbollah to receive weapons," Saad said.
So Hezbollah may have started smuggling its weapons across Syria in a more covert way even before HTS took over, she suggests. And Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon may have been rationing them, she adds.
Whatever disruptions there are now to Hezbollah's physical supply lines, its financing — through electronic supply lines — remains intact, Saad says. The group still receives funding from Iran, and is using that money for reconstruction efforts, Qassem said in his Dec. 5 speech. Arab and Gulf states have also pledged aid to Lebanon.
"Catering to its domestic constituency, particularly over 1 million Shiite Muslims [in Lebanon] who have been displaced [by fighting] and are just now returning back to their homes, many of which have been destroyed or partially damaged — I think that role is only going to deepen," Saad says. "And this looks like a new phase or stage for Hezbollah."
She says Hezbollah is turning its attention back to running hospitals, banks, schools and welfare programs — the things for which it's better known in Lebanon than its fighting. These will be essential to any rebuilding, along with major infrastructure projects in a state that was struggling even before this war. Such initiatives have helped Hezbollah win popular support and build a shadow state more powerful than the Lebanese government.
Displaced Lebanese continue waiting for Hezbollah's help
Shoumar, whose home was destroyed by Israel in consecutive wars, is determined to rebuild again. And he's confident Hezbollah will still help him.
Before Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27, the longtime Hezbollah leader promised to rebuild a Lebanon that would be "more beautiful than before." His successor Naim Qassem vowed on Dec. 5 to follow through on that.
So Shoumar says he's patiently awaiting Hezbollah's help. In 2006, it came quickly.
"This time, it seems we may have to wait longer," Shoumar says. "Because so much of our country is destroyed."
Jawad Rizkallah and Ali Abdallah contributed to this report from Nabatieh. Jawad Moussa contributed from Beirut.
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