The masks have come off, for the most part, and rates of coronavirus infections in and around Pittsburgh are just a fraction of what they were months ago. But City Controller Michael Lamb says an understanding of its long-term impacts may be emerging only now – even as other city officials prepare to debate about how best to recover from it.
Fiscally, Pittsburgh is in “a pretty enviable position when you look at cities across the country and what everyone else has been dealing with,” said Lamb in a press conference Wednesday. He cited a strong pension fund performance, and the fact that the city was able to draw down on previous years’ revenue surpluses when the virus struck.
Still, Lamb said, parking and amusement tax revenues had yet to show recovery through the early part of this year, when COVID-19 restrictions were still in effect. And the city is about to take up a crucial debate about how to spend a massive infusion of federal coronavirus aid provided by President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan.
Pittsburgh stands to receive roughly $335 million from the program. Mayor Bill Peduto unveiled a draft plan, compiled with input from Pittsburgh City Council, for the money earlier this week.
Public discussion of the plan is due to begin next week, but lines are already being drawn. For one thing, Lamb notes that the plan envisions spending through 2024 – while Peduto will be in office only through the end of this year, having lost a re-election bid to state Rep. Ed Gainey in the Democratic primary.
"I think it's premature for the mayor to suggest a four-year spending plan of money when we're going to have a new mayor in six months,” said Lamb.
The next mayor and council can amend spending plans, and Peduto’s Chief of Staff Dan Gilman said it is imperative to act now.
“The American Rescue Plan was passed because Americans are hurting, “ Gilman said. “We can’t turn around and say, ‘Let’s wait a year’” — especially when the federal government requires the money to be spent by 2024.
Other criticisms of the spending plan are likely: During its public comment period this week, City Council heard from a handful of speakers who said they want to see more money invested in food aid and other social goods.
Councilor Ricky Burgess, who was part of a joint committee that compiled the plan with the mayor’s office, said much of the money was earmarked for the city’s own fiscal needs. More than half of the money is intended to stave off massive cuts in the city budget, including layoffs that had been slated to take effect next month if no aid were forthcoming.
“This is not a slush fund of dollars that can just be spent on pet projects,” Burgess said.
At the same time, he added, where the city did have discretion over funds, he would “argue as vigorously as I can that we use these monies for no short-term use – not to pay rent or to help someone out of a problem they have this year – but to make investments that create long-term transformational change … specifically in the African-American community.”
Ultimately, though, Lamb said, the city’s biggest problem might not be one it can solve on its own, even with federal aid.
“We are still struggling in a lot of ways ... particularly with respect to the labor force,” said Lamb.
While unemployment rates have dropped since the pandemic’s peak, so has the number of people working across southwestern Pennsylvania. Numbers compiled by University of Pittsburgh economist Chris Briem show a drop of roughly 20,000 jobs in the region this year, to about 1.16 million workers – a number lower than it was at any point last year, or at any time in a quarter-century.
“The biggest concern about that is, does it mean something more” — such as a decline in population, Lamb said. He expressed concern that when the U.S. Census Bureau releases population figures for the city later this year, the number will drop below 300,000 people — a dividing line between a big city and a small one.
“If we drop below 300,000 — which we’re likely to do in this census — we become a small municipality," he said. "And that’s not a good thing for Pittsburgh."
That was one reason, he said, why the city should be open to merging with Wilkinsburg, an adjoining municipality with more than 15,000 residents. City schools already educate some Wilkinsburg students, and the city provides fire protection for Wilkinsburg as well. Lamb said that a full merger, for which some in Wilkinsburg are pressing, could further streamline services.
And, he added, it could be a “very positive thing … having those bodies in the city of Pittsburgh.”
But more broadly, it is not clear what is driving the low workforce numbers or what they mean. However, polls show that child care and coronavirus hesitancy are obstacles for many Americans to reenter the workforce. Anecdotally, Lamb said, the virus might have prompted some workers, such as teachers who felt remote learning was ineffective, to retire sooner than they would have otherwise.
Briem said he agrees that the census may report a Pittsburgh population below 300,000. He said the problem may look worse than it is due to the departure of college students when the virus struck last year. And the employment totals are calculated over a seven-county area, so the connection between job numbers and the local population is hard to gauge.
But Briem notes that “if remote working becomes the kind of [fixture] people are saying it will, the city could be the loser” because of its traditional role as a job center.
“COVID has impacted a lot of things in the labor force,” he said, and the numbers here “are pretty extreme.”
