This is WESA Politics, a weekly newsletter by Chris Potter providing analysis about Pittsburgh and state politics. Sign up here to get it every Thursday afternoon.
Never mind that new Pittsburgh Works Together poll that shows State Rep. Sara Innamorato suddenly leading the race for Allegheny County executive. The real sign that she’s ahead came later, when rival John Weinstein blasted out text messages calling her “divisive,” “inadequate,” and “extreme.”
The attacks aren’t surprising, and may or may not be compelling. (The “divisive” accusation, for one, stems from a years-old remark she made on a podcast, which hasn’t done much to hinder her political career so far.) What may be more surprising is that it took so long for some to take Innamorato seriously.
There’s no guarantee Innamorato will win — though a donor memo circulated by Innamorato’s campaign cites internal polling similar to the Pittsburgh Works survey. As pollster Gene Ulm told me, polls make educated guesses about who will actually vote. Innamorato fares best among self-identified “strong Democrats” most likely to show up, but if turnout changes — elections officials expect it to be around 30 percent — the final result could be different.
Still, it’s worth asking how Innamorato, who was in a distant third place the last time Ulm polled the contest, is now at the top of the heap.
Some of the momentum, Ulm says, has to do with the fact that candidates most in line with the base do well in primaries. Younger, more progressive candidates such as Summer Lee and Ed Gainey have built and benefited from grassroots movements that have sprung up in recent years. And Ulm’s polling data shows Innamorato leading within that movement now: She bests her rivals among Black voters by double digits, leads with city voters by a two-to-one margin, and crushes her rivals among voters under 45.
And of course Innamorato herself has a compelling life story and a focus on bedrock economic concerns. And while being the youngest of the top contenders at 37, she sometimes seems the most grown-up person in the room. Take a two-week period in March when candidates blasted each other about ethics. While Weinstein and Michael Lamb tried to shine a negative light on each other, Innamorato put the spotlight on herself, voluntarily disclosing her campaign’s financial activity and pledging to increase ethics standards if elected.
There’s another factor as well: Innamorato’s campaign is making use of national support and modern political tactics to counter advantages held by her rivals.
Take a TV ad recently launched on her behalf by progressive group Working Families Party. The spot already has cost more than a quarter-million dollars in airtime, and no doubt has helped raise Innamorato’s name recognition in recent weeks. It asserts that “Politicians Michael Lamb and John Weinstein don’t share our values,” and it offers Innamorato as the candidate who “will fight for us.”
Such advertisements are independent expenditures, not subject to the same spending rules as campaigns themselves. And a disclaimer asserts that the spot is “not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.” Yet it’s no coincidence that some of the footage looks a lot like that used by her own campaign.
The Innamorato campaign website features a page, reached via a discreetly placed “on this race” link elsewhere on the site, that features “B-roll” film footage for anyone to use. It also suggests attacks that Innamorato doesn’t use herself – for example, that voters “need to see on TV that John Weinstein AND Michael Lamb do not share our values because they are bankrolled by Republicans and big corporations.” That’s exactly what the Working Families ad says.
Using websites to help others message for you is common enough that it has its own name: redboxing. (The label derives from the fact that this text often is framed inside a red-lined square.) And not everyone admires the tactic, which can complicate efforts to limit the power of big spenders. Allegheny County Councilor Tom Duerr, for one, has crafted legislation that treats the “republication of campaign communications” (i.e. redboxing) as an in-kind contribution — a non-cash gift that candidates have to report, and that would be limited in future elections under campaign-finance rules he’s backed separately.
But in a race where Weinstein has been able to raise $100,000 from a single donor (trucking magnate and Strip District developer Charles Hammel), a case can be made that redboxing can even the score. Joe Dinkin, the national campaign director for the Working Families Party, said grassroots candidates suffer most from the broader unfairness of the campaign finance system.
In any case, he said, Innamorato is doing well because “her story and vision match what voters want — and because she’s backed by some of the region’s most popular politicians, like Ed Gainey and Summer Lee.”
Still, don’t be surprised if Innamorato’s front-runner status prompts increased scrutiny of allies such as SEIU Healthcare. The group played a huge role — much of which came in the form of outside spending — in electing Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey. And it’s prominent in this race as well: The union, whose activities at the city level have been attracting media attention recently, has given $95,000 to Innamorato. Earlier this week, it hosted a “May Day Roundtable on the Hospital Workforce Crisis,” which featured Innamorato and allies talking with employees trying to unionize UPMC.
Yet no one mentioned the county executive race during that event, and I have never heard Innamorato mix her campaign with her official duties. (And that hasn’t been for lack of trying on my part.) What’s going on isn’t campaigning so much as the movement-building that can help campaigns succeed.
That may be the biggest thing Innamorato has going for her. I used to hear progressives gripe about “the Democratic machine.” It sounded scary until you took a closer look and realized the “machine” was running on worn-down gears as toothless as a Democratic Committee endorsement. But what progressives have put together — a mix of grassroots organizing and support from a broader national movement — seems to be working much more effectively.
