This is WESA Politics, a weekly newsletter by Chris Potter providing analysis about Pittsburgh and state politics. If you want it earlier — we'll deliver it to your inbox on Thursday afternoon — sign up here.
To be honest, in weeks like this I’m almost afraid to write a newsletter. Donald Trump is scheduled to give his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention a few hours from now, and at this point, it wouldn’t totally surprise me if he emerged from the husk of what was his body transformed into a beautiful, iridescent butterfly. It’s been that kind of election.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden is suffering from not one but two maladies that seem highly resistant to inoculation: COVID and Democratic angst. Each has shown a tendency to surge back just when it appeared to be vanquished. Biden has tried to brush aside Democratic concerns about his candidacy after last month’s disastrous debate, but as of Thursday morning there were mounting predictions that he could withdraw from the race by this weekend.
About the only constant anymore is the tendency of Western Pennsylvania Democrats to stay out of such fights. And their reasons for doing so suggest why replacing Biden isn’t quite the no-brainer that many people might think — including the two-thirds of Democrats who have told pollsters they wish Biden would bow out.
To be sure, Democrats including Eastern Pennsylvania U.S. Rep. Susan Wild have voiced fears about Biden’s ability to campaign effectively at age 81. And Wild has been in the vanguard of an effort to pause an expedited process establishing Biden as the nominee.
But compare that to the more cautious approach of Pittsburgh’s own House member, Summer Lee. She’s criticized Biden about the war in Gaza, and during the spring primary faced accusations that she was insufficiently supportive of him. Her recent remarks about his prospects, however, have been measured: She’s acknowledged concerns about his ability to campaign, but while she hasn’t backed him as strongly as fellow progressives Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she hasn’t called on him to withdraw, either.
Other Western Pennsylvania Democrats have gone further. Congressman Chris Deluzio stood foursquare behind Biden after a disastrous debate and hasn’t flinched since. U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, meanwhile, has urged Democrats to “grow a set” — which I believe is Fettermanese for “now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their party.” Sen. Bob Casey has also been a staunch ally.
So what’s going on?
Muhlenberg College pollster Chris Borick offered an explanation similar to what other Democrats have told me privately.
“Democrats are in a scenario where Biden is obviously struggling, but downballot Dems are significantly outpolling him,” he said. “The top of the ticket affects who shows up to vote. But it’s not all doom and gloom, and candidates can find their own path.”
On the flip side, he said, is the uncertainty if Biden is replaced. If your race depends on doing well in places like Erie or Beaver County, does it help to have Kamala Harris, or fellow Californian Gavin Newsom, lead the ticket? Gov. Josh Shapiro might seem an ideal choice for Pennsylvania Dems, but as Lee has observed, the risk of passing over Harris — who would be the first Black woman to head up a major-party ticket — is real.
As Borick put it, the question for Democrats is: "If I push for Biden to get out, does the divisiveness I sow and the uncertainty of the payoff make that a bad strategy?”
Right now, at least, the polls that show Biden trailing Trump offer a decent lead for Casey in his race against Republican Dave McCormick: A recent New York Times/Siena poll shows Casey up by margins of 8 to 11 points, depending on what voters you look at, even as Biden lags Trump by 3. Democrats say internal polls bear out the trend in other races.
And as Borick notes: Pennsylvania no longer has straight-ticket voting, which allowed voters to support a party’s entire slate of candidates just by checking one box on their ballot. In previous cycles, Democrats have lamented that change (which was a trade-off to expand mail-in balloting in 2019). But it could help them this year.
The fundraising also doesn’t look too shabby, at least where downballot contests are concerned. In federal campaign finance reports filed just this week, Bob Casey and Dave McCormick both reported just over $8 million in fundraising during the past three months — and McCormick’s total included a $2 million loan he made to his own campaign.
Deluzio raised nearly $675,000 and started July with almost $1.9 million in the bank. That was more than enough to hold off Republican Rob Mercuri’s (very respectable!) $411,000 in fundraising, which added to a campaign account that contains a bit more than $800,000.
Of course, there are warning signs for every Democrat, not least a tidal shift in party registration that has eaten away into once-sizable Democratic advantages from Bucks County to Beaver. If Biden stays in the race and polling trends get worse, don’t be surprised if Democrats start explicitly pitching themselves as a bulwark against a second Trump term. They won’t come easily: Doing so could telegraph that even Biden allies are giving up on him. But Democrats privately concede the possibility has been discussed.
“I don’t think anyone is under the illusion that this will be easy,” countered Democratic attorney general candidate Eugene DePasquale. But for the most part, he said, “I'm hearing people say, 'I need to excite people in my own way, and hopefully that lifts all boats.’”
DePasquale’s own pitch is that voters will need an ally in Harrisburg regardless of what happens in Washington, D.C.
For example, “No matter who wins, Congress isn’t going to codify Roe” and protect abortion rights nationally, he said. “If you care about abortion staying legal, you want a Democrat in this office” to defend reproductive rights.
In any case, DePasquale said, his advice to anxious Democrats is simple: “Control what you can control.”
Especially because at times like this, it’s not clear who else is in charge.
