As of Monday, Bucks County has flipped red, with Republicans gaining a more than 200 voter registration advantage over Democrats.
Pat Poprick, chair of the Bucks County Republican Committee, said this turn marks the culmination of a years-long effort by Republican organizers in one of Pennsylvania’s most sharply divided counties.
“We’re all ecstatic. This is something since 2007, that’s the last time we’ve been in the majority, so this has been something that’s been very important to all of us,” she said.
Republicans closed a gap of 10,000 registered voters dating to November 2020. At that time, registered Democrats in Bucks numbered over 208,000, with Republicans topping out over 198,000.
As of Monday, Republicans now number 198,045, with Democratic registrations at 197,781.
Republican organizers said the shift comes from Democrats switching their registration to Republican, residents who recently moved to the area who had to update their voter registration to their new address and registered Republican, as well as 18 year olds or other people who hadn’t previously registered to vote signing up as members of the GOP.
Dan Mallinson, associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg, said that while voter registration numbers are important, they aren’t the full story. Oftentimes, voter registration numbers lag behind actual voting behaviors, he said.
“Even though the Democratic presidential candidate has won in Bucks County since 1992, if you look at the actual differences between the Democratic winner and the Republican, many of those races are still very, very close, including the last election,” Mallinson said. “In the fall, we’ll know if it really now is a red county, or if those registrations are just kind of lagging how people’s voting behaviors [have] already changed.”
The more than 60,000 unaffiliated registered voters in Bucks County, and more than 21,000 registered with a party other than the Republican or Democratic parties, also present another unknown variable in November’s elections.
Jamie Perrapato, founder of both Turn PA Blue and Promote the Vote PA, said while the shift in voter registrations in Bucks is “concerning” for Democrats, it’s not an end-all be-all measurement — especially in a closed primary state like Pennsylvania.
“Party registration is indicative of some things but not everything,” she said, noting that many Bucks County residents, regardless of party affiliation, often split their ticket and vote for candidates from both parties in different races.
“No matter what the registration advantage is and who has it, that gets you nothing unless you’re having conversations with voters, especially some place like Bucks,” Perrapato said.
Apart from the registration push, Republican organizers are focusing on getting out the vote in November — in part by encouraging voters to use mail-in ballots.
Former President Donald Trump falsely claimed mail-in ballots are unreliable during the 2020 elections, but Bucks Republicans said they are working to instill confidence in the mail-in voting process and assure voters that the process is safe and effective.
Poprik said some Republicans in Bucks are distrustful of mail-in voting, but she herself votes by mail and assures other voters it’s safe and effective.
“I would not be wasting my vote or taking a chance if I didn’t know it was crystal clear safe,” she said.
Joann Baer, chair of the Warrington Republican Committee, said they’re also focusing on people who are registered to vote but haven’t participated in recent elections.
“The low propensity voters are the ones that we’re really trying to target to come out and secure that vote,” she said.
In 2020, Biden won the county with 51.7% of the vote to Trump’s 47.3%. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton also eked out a victory over Trump in Bucks in the 2016 elections, taking 48.4% of the vote compared to 47.8% of the vote for Trump.
Both parties have focused on Bucks, a key county in a crucial swing state, during this election cycle.
“The key to Harrisburg, the House, the Senate and the White House are all here in Bucks County,” said Ed Sheppard, chair of communications for the Doylestown Republican Committee.
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