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Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro won’t be VP but is now a national figure. Can he maintain momentum?

A man in a suit speaks at a podium in front of an American flag.
Matt Rourke
/
AP
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks during a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris in Ambler, Pa., Monday, July 29, 2024.

Gov. Josh Shapiro says he will do everything he can to help Kamala Harris become the next president of the United States. But he won’t be doing that as her running mate.

After a couple weeks of courting Shapiro and other rising stars in the Democratic Party, Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice-presidential candidate.

But while Shapiro might not have gotten the prestigious pick, it seems he earned a lot of political capital through this process. And some say that capital might set him up for his own presidential run in four or eight years.

From the time President Joe Biden quit the race in early July and endorsed Kamala Harris, Shapiro’s name remained atop short lists of those who might be her running mate.

News of Harris’ decision broke Tuesday morning, and Shapiro was expected to join the candidates later in the day in a Philadelphia kickoff of a swing-state tour.

“Vice President Kamala Harris has my enthusiastic support – and I know that Governor Tim Walz is an exceptionally strong addition to the ticket who will help Kamala move our country forward,” he posted on X.

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The reasons Shapiro was on that short list point not only to his prospects within the Democratic Party, but also to the importance of Pennsylvania in this year’s presidential election.

Starting the tour in Pennsylvania speaks to the critical need for Dems to win the state’s 19 electoral votes. And the intense attention that will be paid to Pa. will surely keep Shapiro’s name out there.

“I think everybody would agree that Pennsylvania is probably the most vital state for Democrats to have in this election cycle if they want to hold the White House,” Berwood Yost, director of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall College, said in an interview before the pick was made. “The road to the White House for Democrats almost certainly runs through Pennsylvania.”

Josh Shapiro has experience vs. Trump tactics

Before he was governor, Shapiro was Pennsylvania’s attorney general.

In that role, he helped disprove various false claims about voting irregularities related to Donald Trump’s 2020 election-fraud lie.

His office successfully fought more than 20 lawsuits filed after the election.

These included challenges to Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballot rules and attempts to decertify the state’s election results.

In the race to become governor, Shapiro easily defeated one of Trump’s biggest fans.

State Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, had Trump’s full support and easily won the Republican nomination. But in the general election, he lost to Shapiro by nearly 15 points.

Stephen Medvic, associate professor of government at Franklin & Marshall College, warned that race can be misleading.

“Sen. Mastriano, for all intents and purposes, really didn’t even run a campaign,” he said, in an interview before the pick was announced. “I mean, there were no public events. There was very little advertising, very little fundraising. So, Gov. Shapiro ran that campaign really kind of in a vacuum without much pushback from the other side.”

In the weeks since Harris emerged as the presidential candidate, Shapiro and other short-listers had been on something of a tryout, attacking Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, and defending the Biden-Harris platform.

He frequently posts on X and says in TV appearances and rallies that Trump needs to stop “s*** talking America.”

In response to unearthed audio of Vance calling for the federal government to block women from Republican states from traveling to other states to get an abortion, Shapiro again posted in support of abortion access in Pennsylvania.

“These comments are more disgraceful proof that Trump and his running mate think they know better than American women when it comes to their healthcare,” he posted. “They don’t.

“Abortion is legal for Pennsylvanians and all women who travel here for care and as your Governor, I’ll always fight like hell to keep it that way.”

Shapiro is likely to lean on this experience in the coming weeks to try to knock Republicans off balance in Pennsylvania.

“I think that they’re going to be continuing to use him as a surrogate, no matter what happens,” Mustafa Rashed, president and CEO of Bellevue Strategies, said before the pick was made.

In that role, Shapiro would remain in the national spotlight, possibly paving the way for his own presidential run in four or eight years.

But he needs to keep up the momentum.

Speaking before Walz was chosen, Samuel Chen, principal director of The Liddell Group, said a national spotlight today doesn’t mean that is going to last.

“Some national attention now in 2024 is not going to register in 2028,” he said. “And so it’s one of those things where you’ve got to kind of stay consistent with it.”

Chen said Shapiro can keep that consistency through national TV appearances, traveling to other states and building his brand.