It's been a decade since one party controlled the governor’s mansion and Pennsylvania's legislature. And Democrats hope spirited voter turnout amid a presidential election year can hand them their first “trifecta” since 1993.
Whether that happens or not – and it won’t be easy – this fall's elections could pave the way for new state laws, or changes to the state constitution itself.
Democrats hold the state House by only one seat (102-101) and Republicans control the Senate 28-22. The results in November will determine which bills pass in each chamber, and which are deemed worthy of discussion: The majority party in each chamber decides who leads committees, effectively controlling which bills are discussed and voted on.
Republicans aim to retake the state House, a chamber it controlled for more than 10 years until 2022, when Democrats eked out a majority with help from a newly reconfigured legislative district map and backlash over the US Supreme Court’s decision to roll back constitutional protections for abortion rights.
This fall, meanwhile, Democrats hope to win a Senate majority for the first time since the early ’90s.
Close-call districts
While the narrow majority in the House means that any race could be a tipping point, a number of crucial battlegrounds exist west of Harrisburg. For the state House, incumbents Mandy Steele (D-Allegheny), Rob Matzie (D-Beaver), Valerie Gaydos (R-Allegheny) and Frank Burns (D-Johnstown) hope to ward off challengers in swingy districts. A North Hills seat being vacated by Rob Mercuri also figures to play a role.
For the state Senate, the consequential Mon Valley seat of retiring Sen. Jim Brewster is up for grabs between state Rep. Nick Pisciottano (D-Allegheny) and Republican business owner Jen Dintini. Incumbent Sen. Devlin Robinson (R-Allegheny) seeks a second term but school teacher and former Jefferson Hills councilmember Nicole Ruscitto has opposed him. Another close race in Erie sees incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Laughlin challenged by the county’s Democratic Party chair, Jim Wertz, who Laughlin had sued for defamation over an op-ed.
With Democrat Josh Shapiro in the governor's mansion, Republicans can’t aspire to the kind of trifecta that Democrats hope for. But if either party wins control of both the Senate and the House, lawmakers can try to amend the state constitution. Ultimately voters get to decide on any changes to the constitution, though putting it before them requires legislative approval, in two back-to-back legislative sessions.
Jerry Dickinson, a constitutional law professor and vice dean at the University of Pittsburgh, says amending the constitution isn't an easy task.
"In Pennsylvania, it first has to be amended through the legislative process… and you've got to do it in essentially two consecutive sessions,” Dickinson said, adding that Pennsylvania differs from other states, where citizens can initiate the amendment process. “In California, where the people can put something up on the ballot by getting a certain number of signatures to a particular question,” Dickinson said, “you can bypass the legislature.”
A governor can't veto a bill to put proposed amendments before voters. But those amendments often die if the same party doesn't hold the legislature two sessions in a row. Measures likely to die this session include a voter ID requirement and a measure to limit protections for abortion, among others.
Democratic policy priorities
Sen. Jay Costa (D-Forest Hills) leads the Senate Democratic caucus. He’s optimistic on his party’s chances to tie the chamber of 50 lawmakers.
“We're confident that we will be able to flip three seats, hold on the seats we need to hold on to, and then have the functional majority in the Senate … going forward,” Costa said. Democrats don’t need an outright majority: As Lieutenant Governor, Austin Davis gives Democrats a tie-breaking vote in the Senate should the chamber split 25 to 25.
In the competitive 45th Senate district, Costa pointed to an extremely close race for Pittsburgh’s western and southwestern suburbs. Four years ago, incumbent Brewster defeated a challenger by only 69 votes after the US Supreme Court weighed in. Brewster said earlier this year he would not seek reelection, leaving Pisciottano and Dintini to vie for the seat.
And though observers say it’s a tough climb for Democrats to take a Senate majority, if they do, it would be the first time in over three decades. Gov. Josh Shapiro has often noted he’s the only state leader with a divided legislature in the entire country.
Costa said Dems would oversee virtually all aspects of the chamber and push legislative priorities blocked this session by Republicans, including raises for the state’s lowest-earning hourly workers.
If Democrats can win control, Costa said, “We control the calendar, what bills run.” He added Dems want to enshrine reproductive rights in the state Constitution and pass bills for LGBTQ protections, provide new funding for the whole home repair program, universal background checks for firearms and public transit funding. “Minimum wage is going to be one of the first things we approach and make sure we have paid sick leave and family leave.”
Democrats also point to a bipartisan utility assistance bill that made its way through the House last week with amendments suggested by the Senate. With few legislative days left, they say the Republican-controlled Senate committee tasked with discussion should renew the law that protects against utility shut offs before it expires Nov. 30.
Republican policy priorities
Longtime Republican strategist Charlie Gerow says the GOP is more likely to gain ground than lose it. Republican lawmakers would “[bring] back some fiscal sanity to Pennsylvania” with a regained majority in the state House, Gerow said. “And if they [take both chambers], Josh [Shapiro] has got real problems.”
Even if Republicans hold the state Senate and don’t retake the House, “It is a check on the runaway spending that Josh Shapiro and Democrats want,” Gerow said. “It's also promotion of school choice and initiatives that are not only very popular… but necessary for the future of the Commonwealth.”
If Republicans win both chambers, they could advance tougher crime measures and school vouchers, which Shapiro and Senate Republicans supported last year. (A recent Spotlight PA poll shows a majority of voters remain opposed to using public funds for school vouchers, often used for private and charter schools.)
There are only a handful of joint-session days before the session ends on Nov. 30. The House and Senate both meet this week, then again on Oct. 21-23 and Nov. 13. But earlier this month, House GOP leader Bryan Cutler alongside Rep. Valerie Gaydos (R-Moon) said their party will move public-safety bills this session and again next year.
And Republican House policy chair Rep. Josh Kail (R-Beaver) held Capitol events this month dubbed “Combatting the Crisis of Cost" and "Fighting to Keep the Lights On," a signal the party will push against renewable energy and what they call Democrat-induced inflation. In several press conferences ahead of the election, the lawmakers stressed government cost-cutting and pro-oil and gas bills. Kail argued Democratic policies harm the state’s energy resilience and put Pennsylvanians in difficult economic straits.
House bills with minor bipartisan support languishing in the Senate include expanding LGBTQ nondiscrimination protections, increasing the state’s $7.25 minimum wage and allowing for mail-in ballot pre-canvassing.
Michael Straw, spokesperson for the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, says for their part, Democrats are blocking plenty of bipartisan bills in the House, like one sponsored by a Philadelphia-area senator that would ban supervised injection sites and another that would repeal the state’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, or RGGI, which has yet to be enforced and which has been opposed by many in the fossil-fuels energy sector.
Gerow said neither party feels secure just yet: “The reality is that the majorities in both the House and the Senate are going to be pretty thin come January.”
