The 2020 election saw a major realignment of voting patterns in Allegheny County, one that helped send Joe Biden to the White House. The election Tuesday reinforced that dynamic, albeit with slight precinct-level changes that, on balance, favored Donald Trump.
Harris is on track to win Allegheny County with a margin of 19.7% of the vote – slightly less than the 20.4% margin by which Biden won the county in 2020. (A caveat about these side-by-side comparisons: This year’s totals haven’t been certified and don't include provisional ballots and the county said nine precincts didn't report their election day totals.)
This is still a substantial improvement from 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the county by just 16.4%. But much of those gains took place in 2020, rather than this year. The Allegheny County suburbs began turning more blue at the end of Trump's term– a trend that continued this year as well.
Still, there were some shifts in voting patterns this year. Some of the biggest and most consistent were concentrated in Pittsburgh's urban core, and areas with large concentrations of Black voters such as Wilkinsburg and McKeesport. Harris still carried the vast majority of these districts, but by a smaller percentage of the vote. That performance echoes some polling that shows Black men, in particular, supported Trump in larger numbers than they have in the past.
Harris, meanwhile, padded the Democratic gains in some wealthier South Hills suburbs, such as Mt. Lebanon and Upper St. Clair. That performance too bears out exit polls showing that Harris won a bigger share of voters earning more than $100,000 per year. (She also did well in the city’s South Side.)
In all, though, the overall vote share didn't change dramatically, with about 70% of the precincts giving Harris a margin within 5 percentage points of the margins Biden received.
Meanwhile, in addition to showing improvement in urban areas like Pittsburgh, Trump continued to improve his margins in outlying rural counties, including all the counties surrounding Pittsburgh except for Armstrong. Harris was not able to offset those gains with her improvements in the Pittsburgh suburbs, suggesting that Democrats’ much-touted efforts to connect with rural voters – including women concerned about abortion rights – have yet to bear fruit.
*Not certified
