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Fair warning: This is one of those “things to watch for in 2025” pieces that everyone does this time of year. And maybe you don’t want to watch for anything. Maybe you’ve already seen too much.
I get it. AdImpact, which tracks political spending on the airwaves, says the Pittsburgh media market ranked fifth in the nation for 2024 election ad buys. But hey: The holidays are over, and stuff is about to start happening. We may as well get used to it.
So here are five things we may all have to pay attention to this year.
1. How will our senators adjust to life in Donald Trump’s Washington?
After U.S. Sen. Bob Casey’s defeat last year, Pennsylvania’s two senators have less than a full term of experience between them. And they’ll both have to negotiate the challenges of Trump’s return to the White House.
First-term Democratic Sen. John Fetterman has already shown signs of being, well, MAGA-curious. He’s criticized a successful Trump prosecution (by posting on Trump social-media site TruthSocial, no less!) and been the rare Democrat to see the softer side of proposed Trump FBI director, Kash Patel — whose professed willingness to carry Trump’s water has raised alarms among others.
Fetterman has been a solid Democratic vote despite such apostasy. But going forward, it will be a Republican majority that decides what will be voted on. And his moves are going to be viewed through the lens of — God help me for saying this — the 2028 presidential race. The possibility of a Fetterman bid is now being discussed openly, after being only whispered about and — koff koff — predicted as a possibility in this space a year ago.
Newly elected Sen. Dave McCormick, meanwhile, narrowly won his seat by arguing that Casey voted too much in lockstep with President Joe Biden … even as McCormick frequently appeared at Trump’s side. Since the election, he’s talked up causes such as adopting more energy-friendly policies and voter ID — policies popular with Republicans without antagonizing moderates. But when Trump pushes the envelope, how much independence will McCormick display?
2. How ugly will Pittsburgh’s mayoral race get?
The emerging match-up between Mayor Ed Gainey and challenger Corey O’Connor won’t be the only race this year — there’ll be a race for an open city council seat and roughly 473 judicial candidates to choose from, and, erm, some county council races? But this will be the biggest game in town.
O’Connor’s campaign roll-out last month was surprisingly pugnacious, peppered with sharp criticism of Gainey’s record. And Gainey has long weathered such attacks, even if — as this space has noted repeatedly — some of the most contentious issues are nationwide problems, such as a rise in homelessness and difficulty recruiting police.
Gainey offered an above-the-fray response to O’Connor’s entry, but folks in the mayor’s camp quietly contend that the genial O’Connor has never been in a bitter high-profile race, and they question how well he can take a punch. In any case, look for outside-spending groups to play a role, as they did in the last mayoral race. Pittsburgh’s tight campaign-finance rules mean the big money can’t contribute directly to campaigns. But groups spending their own money on candidates’ behalf have no limits on the contributions they accept — and few political restraints on the attacks they dish out.
3. Can Harrisburg do something big?
One prediction I made last year that didn’t pan out was that Pennsylvania would finally join neighboring states and raise its minimum wage. Didn’t happen. In fact, last year was among the legislature’s least productive in recent memory.
To be fair, recent state budgets passed without too much drama — and in Harrisburg that counts as a big win. And last year’s budget made at least a down payment on expanded education funding. Among other initiatives, a bipartisan effort to rein in the power of drug-industry middlemen moved from Pittsburgh’s backyard to the governor’s desk.
But those aren’t big-ticket signature accomplishments like, say, fully legalizing marijuana — another area where Pennsylvania tried but failed last year to catch up with its neighbors. Many of the accomplishments Gov. Josh Shapiro hangs his hat on — such as streamlining regulatory processes or speedily rebuilding a collapsed roadway in Philadelphia — came without legislative help.
Maybe this year will be different, but once again the state Senate is in the hands of Republicans, while Democrats have a one-vote majority in the House. I can already anticipate one potential departure that will leave the chamber tied, at least until a special election is held.
4. Will voters care about … judicial retention?
Three justices on the seven-member state Supreme Court face up-or-down retention votes, the kind of ballot choice voters barely think about. But all three of the justices up next year are Democrats, and this year’s retention vote figures to be yet another front in the Forever War of contemporary American politics. Among conservatives, the weird memes have already begun to land.
The issues they’re raising may seem pretty niche, relying on years-old concerns such as how the court ruled on mail-in ballot issues in 2020 and its support for COVID shutdowns. Most people may have let that stuff go, but then … most people don’t think too much about judicial retention at all. This is the kind of low-interest content that rewards a motivated base, even though its long-term effects can have a huge impact on everyone.
Democratic party leaders, even at the national level, say they have this fight very much on their radar. Will their voters?
5. When will aging white guys start sharing the spotlight?
Here I can provide a partial answer: You’ll be seeing less of my byline in this newsletter going forward, and more from my colleagues covering government at the local, state, and federal level. Doing so ought to open up room for new voices, and hopefully it will turn out better for us than having Joe Biden step back worked out for Democrats. May the same be said for all of your endeavors in 2025.
